By Kevin Yao
BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese policymakers will likely step up measures to at least help the economy meet an increasingly challenging growth target for 2024, analysts and policy advisers say, with a sharper focus on boosting demand to fight persistent deflationary pressures.
Official data showed the world's second-largest economy slowed broadly in August, fuelling expectations for more stimulus. President Xi Jinping recently urged authorities to strive to meet the country's annual economic goals, signalling Beijing remains committed to hitting its around 5% GDP growth target.
Policymakers are navigating a complicated economic landscape, with China's reliance on infrastructure spending to drive growth exacerbating debt risks. Excessive domestic investment amid weak demand has also fuelled deflationary pressures, which have already pushed down prices and forced companies to reduce wages or fire workers to cut costs.
"We need to strengthen fiscal policy, which is more effective at addressing deflation, while adjusting monetary policy further to keep it accommodative," a policy adviser said on condition of anonymity.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on Wednesday, which began the U.S. easing cycle, will create more space for the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to lower interest rates and banks' reserve requirement ratio. The PBOC may also slash interest rates on existing mortgages to help homeowners, analysts said.
China could additionally step up its spending. Local governments have been quickening bond issuance to help fund the construction of major projects, alongside increased debt issuance by the central government to support key strategic sectors.
While policymakers may count on a combination of fiscal stimulus and monetary easing to spur growth, a key meeting of the ruling Communist Party in July reaffirmed a stronger focus on the supply side. That suggests forceful measures to tackle weak consumer demand and deepening deflation risks are unlikely in the near term.
"They (policymakers) will step up efforts as they are unwilling to accept lower growth," said Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the economic policy commission at the state-backed China Association of Policy Science.
"But any forceful stimulus looks unlikely."
Over recent years China has been relying on increased spending on infrastructure and manufacturing to support growth, with the central bank steadily lowering borrowing costs.
GROWTH TARGET AT RISK
China's roughly 5% growth target for 2024 allows for some flexibility. However, faltering growth in recent months has prompted several global brokerages to lower their forecasts below that target.